Philly Sports Jabronis
Week 6
We can easily look to some of the teams coming off the league’s first bye week for different reasons. Start with the Steelers hosting the Browns. A pick to lock in. Then there’s the Bears drawing a tough spot in Washington on Monday Night Football. Look to the Commanders there. The Packers versus the visiting Bengals are also a viable pick, though the inclusion now of journeyman veteran Joe Flacco creates some hesitation. And coming off a loss, don’t be too woried about the Eagles having to visit the Giants on Thursday Night Football.
Survive!
Week 5
The beginning of bye weeks always initiates new elements to the Survivor Football algorithm – well, actually, it more like the second week of bye weeks that does that, unless you seek to avoid team heading into byes, which is always worth considering when possible. Looks like some road cooking options are in play this week: Lions at Bengals and Texans at Ravens with a backup quarterback in play (although Cooper Rush can be a worrisome foe as a spot starter) as top-tier considerations. And the Chiefs at Jacksonville on Monday Night is intriguing, but, yeah, a road team on MNF invites risk.
On the home front are the Cardinals hosting a now bitter Titans team where the quarterback now talks about how the team stinks. The Lions and Texans might just be better teams.
Survive!
Week 4
This week presents a bit of a polarizing view of where to lean, assuming when the agenda is to go the path of least risk – meaning that there’s not a commitment to “saving” teams for future weeks or “chasing losers,” the latter of which typically results in eventual failed survivor picks as few teams will go without a win in a given season.
Those who have the Bills available this week should feel confident despite a winless and desperate Saints team coming to town. New Orleans isn’t likely to go winless this season, but they also aren’t likely to win this one. On the other side of the pole – for those who can stomach choosing a team without a win, the Texans hosting the likewise winless Titans are intriguing.
Bills offer less risk, for sure, with how Houston’s offense has been operating.
Other viable looks include Detroit, on a short week however, hosting Cleveland, the Rams hosting the yet-to-lose Colts, the Chargers visiting the Giants in a game where a rookie will make a first career start, and the Broncos hosting a Bengals team that appears to be headed for an overall lost season.
To a lesser degree of confidence come a Packers team that is better than host Dallas clearly, but on the road on Sunday night, and the Patriots hosting the Panthers.
Week 3
At one point in time, as we entered Week 3 of the NFL slate we’d want to go to great lengths to avoid division matchups. That isn’t so much the case anymore, especially when considering the nuances of travel and playing on short weeks that has more consequence in today’s league.
Case in point: the Bills and Dolphins on Thursday night. It’s tough to look past the Bills if you have not used them yet. Being home in prime time on a short week for both teams has big advantages. With Miami being 0-2, it’s wise to not simply “chase a loser,” but there are more compelling reasons to like this game into a viable option. And there are so many winless teams currently that it is tough trying to not chase them.
Also at 0-2, the Kansas City Chiefs present an intriguing play, although they are on the road in prime time Sunday night in New York. The Chiefs are mad and the Giants are still pretty bad, and are coming off a deflating loss.
Beyond that, the schedule presents many unflattering choices, especially given the many quarterback injuries already. It’s tough to pick against the Eagles currently, even when they’re facing another revenge game versus the visiting Rams. The i pm Et start time helps, though. Are the Bears able to go 0-3 with a loss to visiting Dallas with how inconsistent they have been? The Texans feel like a team that should not be 0-2, let alone 0-3, but offensively they are not scaring any teams right now.
Seattle at home versus the Saints feels pretty safe given the alternatives, as does Tampa Bay hosting the Jets. Perhaps we’ll save “don’t chase losers” for next week.
Survive!
Week 2
As making picks has seemingly become more difficult over the years due to effects of NFL parity and schedule quirks including international travel and more teams playing on short weeks – Week 2 still tends to be the “easiest” week to conquer for those who don’t insist on “saving” teams. Simply aim to select a 0-1 team, preferably at home, that appears to be on an elite-enough level to be considered legitimate Super Bowl contenders – meaning that going 0-2 would seemingly risk ruining their season. That’s real motivation combined with being a terrific team – even if said team is facing a formidable opponent.
This week, 0-1 teams include:
New York Jets
New England Patriots
Miami Dolphins
Kansas City Chiefs
Baltimore Ravens
Cleveland Browns
Houston Texans
Tennessee Titans
Dallas Cowboys
New York Giants
Seattle Seahawks
Chicago Bears
Detroit Lions
Atlanta Falcons
New Orleans Saints
Carolina Panthers
Of these squads, the teams with true Super Bowl potential would seem to be: Kansas City Chiefs (home versus Philadelphia), Baltimore Ravens (home versus Cleveland), and Detroit Lions (home versus Chicago). There’s no need to look past the Ravens here. For what it’s worth, the Texans hosting Tampa Bay on Monday night is enticing as an option, but the least risk sits with Baltimore.
Survive!
Week 1
It’s now been 10 years since the Jabronis released the original Survivor Football files. While some of the rules for picks have been tested as the NFL has evolved over time, we still say it is best to adhere to them for the best chance of long-term success – especially in the early part of the season.
That said, Week 1 calls for us to focus on picking a home team. Those options include:
Philadelphia Eagles (kudos to those who stuck their necks out for a Thursday night game in Week 1, one of the stronger prime time plays)
Atlanta Falcons
Cleveland Browns
Jacksonville Jaguars
New York Jets
Washington Commanders
Indianapolis Colts
New England Patriots
New Orleans Saints
Denver Broncos (Joe D’s top pic)
Seattle Seahawks
Green Bay Packers
Buffalo Bills
Los Angeles Rams
*Los Angele Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs played out of the country on Friday night
Survive!
To read the original manifesto, click here.
