Philly Sports Jabronis
Week 14
If there is any one week that is the most difficult week in Survivor, it would have to be the last week of the bye week slate. Here we are. It’s too bad that the Lions are the Thursday home team because any other date might have made them very attractive versus Dallas that likely has a bubble burst coming. The Broncos visiting the Raiders could also be a bubble burst game, so be careful there. The best look might be the Rams coming off an embarrassment visiting a Cardinals team with nothing to play for or the Bucs hosting new Orleans.
Survive!
Week 13
It’s another “look to Seattle” weekend as the Seahawks host a Vikings team that will invite undrafted free agent rookie Max Brosmer to his first NFL start. And then it’s also another “jump on the Monday Night home team” opportunity when the patriots host the Giants, although Jaxson Dart is returning. And the Eagles can’t possibly lose at home on Black Friday to the Bears (or any team) – right?
Survive!
Week 12
We really don’t like to “chase losers,” but it is difficult to not like Seattle coming off their loss to the Rams and getting the chance to play in Tennessee. The Seahawks just don’t seem like a team capable of losing a second game in a row right now to the worst team in the league. But it is a road game against a team that hasn’t won since October. Additionally, the 49ers set up really nice against visiting Carolina on Monday Night Football with Brock Purdy returning.
Survive!
Week 11
The Steelers have been a tough team to trust this season. But if they don’t get a win at home today versus Cincy, the prospects of their playoffs strat to take a big hit. And odds are they won’t lose two in a row in a month to the Bengals, as desperate as they might be coming off a bye. From the desperation angle, the Packers should also be able to overcome the journeyman quarterback mojo in New York versus a Giants team that just hit the reset button again on its franchise. If you still have the Bills available, there might not be a better week remaining to take them either.
The Falcons must be chomping at the bit to avenge their whooping to the Panthers a few weeks ago and the Texans should be mediocre enough to go into Tennessee to secure a win even as the Titans come off a bye as well.
Survive!
Week 10
The manifesto does not take into account which teams among those people who are reading this are available for selection. So when the suggestion to take the Bills this week in Miami is made – it’s not expected that many people have Buffalo available to choose unless you are (and please don’t do this) in the habit of saving teams and/or plotting your course weeks in advance. Other intriguing picks include the Broncos hosting the Raiders (though it is the Thursday Night Football game which almost always comes with concern) the Seahawks hosting the Cardinals on a short week for the red Birds, the Bucs coming off a bye to host the legit Patriots. Also coming off the bye are the Eagles, but a revenge visit to Green Bay is not ideal. And the Texans turning to a journman quarterback at home versus the Jags has appeal as well.
Week 9
Indy has been all the rage this season – but are they really good enough to go into Pittsburgh riding a four-game win streak and knock off a Steelers team that is playing its second straight game at home? It’s worth trying to find out with a selection here, as are the Patriots, Lions, Packers, and Rams at home, the latter of which gets bonus attention for coming off a bye, hosting the Saints, and reportedly getting receiver Puka Nuca back.
The 49ers visiting the Giants also has appeal, as do the Cowboys hosting the Cardinals on Monday Night Football and the Ravens visiting the Dolphins on Thursday Night Football as quarterback Lamar Jackson supposedly will return – which might be the pick of the week were it not for Thursday.
Survive!
Week 8
A few “prove it” opportunities exist for some teams this week that can help guide Survivor picks to those who have certain squads at their disposal.
If the Patriots are going to seriously contend with the Bills this season, they surely can’t lose at home to the Browns. If the Buccaneers are going to take ownership of their division, winning in New Orleans should also be attainable, even if they have some tough injuries to overcome and thge Saints are not a total doormat.
Ditto for the Eagles, who get a quick turnaround on a revenge game for the visiting Giants. And if the Chiefs are really for real now, there shouldn’t be a big worry about visiting Washington on Monday night without Jayden Daniels.
Not sure that the Broncos are trustworthy enough yet to topple Dallas at home or if the Steelers can hold off Green Bay at home in the ultimate revenge game for Aaron Rodgers on Sunday night. But don’t feel too uneasy about Pittsburgh as a selection. Then there’s the Colts hosting the Titans. If Indy is really among the elite, this is a no contest. But can a team with Daniel Jones truly be elite? Woof.
Survive!
Week 7
Perhaps the most significant benefit to advancing to this point in the season is being able to make picks against teams that are not in the “chasing losers” category but really do not inspire any type of confidence in having the ability to win again. Meaning, they actually managed wins, and perhaps even helped you earn your way here, but don’t seem to be competitive enough to win most weeks in the NFL.
Cases in point: (Pick the Patriots) at the Titans
Giants at (pick the Broncos)
Saints at (pick the Bears)
Raiders at (pick the Chiefs)
Don’t chase after the Jest just yet, us the real lesson here.
Survive!
Week 6
We can easily look to some of the teams coming off the league’s first bye week for different reasons. Start with the Steelers hosting the Browns. A pick to lock in. Then there’s the Bears drawing a tough spot in Washington on Monday Night Football. Look to the Commanders there. The Packers versus the visiting Bengals are also a viable pick, though the inclusion now of journeyman veteran Joe Flacco creates some hesitation. And coming off a loss, don’t be too woried about the Eagles having to visit the Giants on Thursday Night Football.
Survive!
Week 5
The beginning of bye weeks always initiates new elements to the Survivor Football algorithm – well, actually, it more like the second week of bye weeks that does that, unless you seek to avoid team heading into byes, which is always worth considering when possible. Looks like some road cooking options are in play this week: Lions at Bengals and Texans at Ravens with a backup quarterback in play (although Cooper Rush can be a worrisome foe as a spot starter) as top-tier considerations. And the Chiefs at Jacksonville on Monday Night is intriguing, but, yeah, a road team on MNF invites risk.
On the home front are the Cardinals hosting a now bitter Titans team where the quarterback now talks about how the team stinks. The Lions and Texans might just be better teams.
Survive!
Week 4
This week presents a bit of a polarizing view of where to lean, assuming when the agenda is to go the path of least risk – meaning that there’s not a commitment to “saving” teams for future weeks or “chasing losers,” the latter of which typically results in eventual failed survivor picks as few teams will go without a win in a given season.
Those who have the Bills available this week should feel confident despite a winless and desperate Saints team coming to town. New Orleans isn’t likely to go winless this season, but they also aren’t likely to win this one. On the other side of the pole – for those who can stomach choosing a team without a win, the Texans hosting the likewise winless Titans are intriguing.
Bills offer less risk, for sure, with how Houston’s offense has been operating.
Other viable looks include Detroit, on a short week however, hosting Cleveland, the Rams hosting the yet-to-lose Colts, the Chargers visiting the Giants in a game where a rookie will make a first career start, and the Broncos hosting a Bengals team that appears to be headed for an overall lost season.
To a lesser degree of confidence come a Packers team that is better than host Dallas clearly, but on the road on Sunday night, and the Patriots hosting the Panthers.
Week 3
At one point in time, as we entered Week 3 of the NFL slate we’d want to go to great lengths to avoid division matchups. That isn’t so much the case anymore, especially when considering the nuances of travel and playing on short weeks that has more consequence in today’s league.
Case in point: the Bills and Dolphins on Thursday night. It’s tough to look past the Bills if you have not used them yet. Being home in prime time on a short week for both teams has big advantages. With Miami being 0-2, it’s wise to not simply “chase a loser,” but there are more compelling reasons to like this game into a viable option. And there are so many winless teams currently that it is tough trying to not chase them.
Also at 0-2, the Kansas City Chiefs present an intriguing play, although they are on the road in prime time Sunday night in New York. The Chiefs are mad and the Giants are still pretty bad, and are coming off a deflating loss.
Beyond that, the schedule presents many unflattering choices, especially given the many quarterback injuries already. It’s tough to pick against the Eagles currently, even when they’re facing another revenge game versus the visiting Rams. The i pm Et start time helps, though. Are the Bears able to go 0-3 with a loss to visiting Dallas with how inconsistent they have been? The Texans feel like a team that should not be 0-2, let alone 0-3, but offensively they are not scaring any teams right now.
Seattle at home versus the Saints feels pretty safe given the alternatives, as does Tampa Bay hosting the Jets. Perhaps we’ll save “don’t chase losers” for next week.
Survive!
Week 2
As making picks has seemingly become more difficult over the years due to effects of NFL parity and schedule quirks including international travel and more teams playing on short weeks – Week 2 still tends to be the “easiest” week to conquer for those who don’t insist on “saving” teams. Simply aim to select a 0-1 team, preferably at home, that appears to be on an elite-enough level to be considered legitimate Super Bowl contenders – meaning that going 0-2 would seemingly risk ruining their season. That’s real motivation combined with being a terrific team – even if said team is facing a formidable opponent.
This week, 0-1 teams include:
New York Jets
New England Patriots
Miami Dolphins
Kansas City Chiefs
Baltimore Ravens
Cleveland Browns
Houston Texans
Tennessee Titans
Dallas Cowboys
New York Giants
Seattle Seahawks
Chicago Bears
Detroit Lions
Atlanta Falcons
New Orleans Saints
Carolina Panthers
Of these squads, the teams with true Super Bowl potential would seem to be: Kansas City Chiefs (home versus Philadelphia), Baltimore Ravens (home versus Cleveland), and Detroit Lions (home versus Chicago). There’s no need to look past the Ravens here. For what it’s worth, the Texans hosting Tampa Bay on Monday night is enticing as an option, but the least risk sits with Baltimore.
Survive!
Week 1
It’s now been 10 years since the Jabronis released the original Survivor Football files. While some of the rules for picks have been tested as the NFL has evolved over time, we still say it is best to adhere to them for the best chance of long-term success – especially in the early part of the season.
That said, Week 1 calls for us to focus on picking a home team. Those options include:
Philadelphia Eagles (kudos to those who stuck their necks out for a Thursday night game in Week 1, one of the stronger prime time plays)
Atlanta Falcons
Cleveland Browns
Jacksonville Jaguars
New York Jets
Washington Commanders
Indianapolis Colts
New England Patriots
New Orleans Saints
Denver Broncos (Joe D’s top pic)
Seattle Seahawks
Green Bay Packers
Buffalo Bills
Los Angeles Rams
*Los Angele Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs played out of the country on Friday night
Survive!
To read the original manifesto, click here.
