Philly Sports Jabronis
The Philly Sports Jabronis introduced our Survivor Football Manifesto in 2015 after Joe D and Carlos, after years of comparing notes and strategies on how to “survive” a weekly NFL one-team pick-em pool, sketched out a risk roadmap to utilize week to week.
Things change over time, however. The NFL has changed, most notably in the way that schedules are constructed.
And with the passing of time, it might be time to reinvent the long-held Manifesto. Maybe.
So, for 2023 we will be taking a more critical look at the results that the Manifesto produces week to week in addition to laying out the wight of risk week to week when disecting the schedule for Survivor picking.
Survive!
Week 4: True to form, the toughest stretch of the Survivor season continues. Injuries and international games are among the myraid of challenges that exist when attempting to dissect where we can reduce the most risk.
Let’s start in London. The Manifesto has long suggested that we avoid these games due to the impact of travel and other drawbacks.
Many times when we get to this point, we are looking to try to take advantage of picking against teams that might unfortunately have more injuries than others, those that might be up against a travel within the confines of the US that are also difficult to work into their routines, and those teams that might be catching an opponent in a good spot based on their game result from last week.
To that end, the undefeated 49ers hosting the Arizona Cardinals sets up as a nice play. Typically, an intra-division matchup with an undefeated team involved could spell trouble – but in this case the Cards are seemingly due for a letdown after their big win versus Dallas last week.
The Chargers are also worth considering at home versus the Raiders, but there are some injuries to consider in the Bolts’ offense. With Jimmy G out for Vegas, however, the Chargers get a boost in consideration if the Raiders go to a rookie QB making his first start in
Wow tough week for survivor football. Right now I think I’m looking San Fran at home vs Cards, but also like the Chargers if Raiders start their rookie QB Aidan O’Connell. Picking against a rookie QB in his first start tends to work out well. If the Raiders go with Brian Hoyer, well he has come off the bench before to participate in shootouts. Beware of that.
Carolina is going back to its struggling rookie QB hosting the Vikings, and if Minnesota was the home team here, this might feel like a strong play because the Vikings are desperate. But suggesting a Kirk Cousins team has burned many before, up to and including Week 1 of this season.
It would be nice to feel confident about taking the Steelers in Houston or those Cowboys hosting New England, but alas.
And relying on the fallback option of choosing the home prime time Sunday or Monday team can’t sit well for either NY team this week.
For those who stuck their necks out to take the Lions in Green Bay on Thursday night, congrats. But the Manifesto is not yet at a point where leaning towards Thursdays games is advised. But we are getting closer to that as the weeks tick by.
Survive!
Week 3: We have entered the toughest part of the Survivor Schedule, leading up to bye weeks. For thoughts on our risk assessment and favorite picks this week, listen to our most recent podcast here.
Survive!
Week 2: As far as the Manifesto is concerned, Week 2 is the easiest week of Survivor – because the options are typically clear and brief.
We want to take a team that we just can’t see going 0-2. Home game or on the road.
Looking at the slate, it looks like it’s Bills or Chiefs to offer the least risk. If the Bills are serious about the Super Bowl, they simply can’t lose to the Raiders at home – and Vegas is coming off a win where the Raiders might be smelling themselves a bit as well. Even better for these purposes.
KC visiting the Jags feels like more of a risk, and it might be. But not sure that matters enough for the Jags to win.
To a certain degree the Bengals hosting the Ravens is intriguing, as is the Steelers at home versus the Browns on Monday night. Division games might be a tougher risk-reward balance, however.
Bills feel like a frontrunner here, but there are reasons to like these other teams as well.
And for a little Manifesto scorekeeping, home teams managed only six wins in Week 1. Yikes. At least Baltimore as the lowest-risk team did what it was supposed to do.
Survive!
Week 1: There still remains at least one constant that should hold up this week for the Manifesto: When it comes to making a Week 1 selection, the only path to take is one in which you’re selecting a home team. Even with parity what it is today, it is too risky to select a road team in Week 1. Football might be the ultimate “team” game. But it is also the ultimate “emotional” game. And there’s a lot of emotion flying high particularly among teams that open at home Week 1.
So, moving forward:
1. Cut the schedule in half, and pick a home team.
Here’s that list:
Chiefs (vs. Lions)
Falcons (vs. Panthers)
Ravens (vs. Texans)
Browns (vs. Bengals)
Colts (vs. Jaguars)
Vikings (vs. Buccaneers)
Saints (vs. Titans)
Steelers (vs. 49ers)
Commanders (vs. Cardinals)
Bears (vs. Packers)
Broncos (vs. Raiders)
Chargers (vs. Dolphins)
Patriots (vs. Eagles)
Seahawks (vs. Rams)
Giants (vs. Cowboys)
Jets (vs. Bills)
2. Ideally, take a team that is expected (from an objective consensus standpoint) to be a playoff team. Note that this says without saying it, that you should not “save” a certain team or teams specifically for future weeks. You can’t play in Week 2 if you don’t win Week 1 (unless of course you are in a buy-back league, which really isn’t Survivor Football if we are being honest.
That said, the Manifesto guides us toward a few specific squads as our options grow smaller:
Chiefs, Ravens, Vikings, Chargers, Seahawks, Giants
Of this group, the Ravens and Vikings stand out. Want to know why? Listen to our podcast here.
