Philly Sports Jabronis
Games “Not To” Bet
Week 14
By Rob Senior
Week 13
Let’s clarify what’s meant by a game “not to” bet. That doesn’t mean both teams stink, or it’s not going to be an exciting game. It’s a game where Vegas throws out a surprising line, or both teams are in bad situations, or simply a pair of teams you can’t trust with your money.
On this week’s Philly Sports Jabronis podcast, we announced my first game not to bet — Dallas (-3) at Minnesota. The rationale was that the Cowboys were flying high, off a hard-fought home win on national TV versus a division rival. Now, they were traveling to a desperate Minnesota team that had recently lost on national TV in a similarly contested game on Thanksgiving.
So why not bet this game? For me, it was simple:
Dallas was primed for a letdown, but who goes against a team on a 10-game win streak? As it turned out, with a Cowboys win/no-cover by a final score of 17-15 it was a game not to bet.
How do you assess whether something was a “good call” when not betting? For me, it’s simple, I want to see the game land either right about on the spread (like the Cowboys/Vikings game) or be a completely one-sided blowout. If one of these things happens, I feel good about the decision to stay away.
On to the Week 13 slate:
Baltimore (-3.5) vs. Miami: Why is a team on a six-game winning streak (Miami) getting more than a field goal against an average Ravens team? Do the odds makers, like so many fans, refuse to trust this Dolphins team? Or is this an ode to Ravens head coach John Harbaugh, whose end-game strategy last week is just the latest example off how rookie head coaches like Miami’s Adam Gase are no match for his experience?
Vegas seems to be telling us to go with the home team, but like this past Thursday night, if you want to go against the win streak, be my guest. I’m sitting this one out.
NY Jets (+1.5) vs. Indianapolis: The Jets found themselves in the don’t-bet category last week as well, in their narrow cover versus New England. Make no mistake, the Jets’ season is OVER, and I think last week was their last hurrah. They gamely fought the Pats to the end, but came up short.
For Indianapolis, as of press time, Andrew Luck was still going through concussion protocol but was “expected” to play. If the Pro Bowl QB starts, the Colts could have everything to gain in this tilt, plus the extra rest that comes with playing on Thanksgiving. So why such a small line?
Frankly, it’s a crime to end a great weekend of college/pro football with this game on Monday night. With the uncertainty surrounding Luck’s status, don’t add to the travesty by losing your weekend’s winnings on this Monday Night affair.
Until next week, remember: Sometimes, the best bet is the one you don’t make.
