Could it be that Week 3 actually sees us make a suggestion that runs counterintuitive to the Manifesto? To find out, listen to this week’s Football Thursday podcast, and tune into the 40-minute mark to go directly to Week 3 Survival guidance.
We know the manifesto likes to tell us to look to a team that lost in Week 1 that has almost no business losing again to go 0-2. That is not quite as easy to do this season. However, options are there. For this week’s take, tune into our most recent Football Thursday’s podcast at about the 27:00 mark. Cheers!
Welcome to Year 3 of Joe D’s Survivor Football Manifesto. Those who know that the rules already know that there are fairly few in scope at this time of year when keeping in mind the traditional early-season modus operandi (see Manifesto Preamble below). That said, let’s get to it. With Week 1 (note that this entry come after the Eagles/Falcons Thursday night opener; however you can hear the Jabronis’ thoughts on that game in this podcast) on tap, we know we will begin by only considering the home teams:
You can’t play in Week 2 of you don’t win in Week 1, so consider teams that should at the very least be in playoff contention as opposed to trying to get a bad team “out of the way.” The advice here, in no particular order, is to look at the Ravens, Lions, Saints and Packers as Tier 1 options. Saints and Packers project to be the better teams this season, but have divisional games (with the Packing facing a potentially formidable opponent). The Manifesto suggests avoiding divisional foes when possible, but not sure that’s much of a concern with these games. The Cardinals, Panthers, Colts and scumbags are passable options, but buyer beware if you are thinking outside of Tier 1.
Manifesto Preamble: Rule 1) In some ways the opening week is the toughest pick to make, in some ways the easiest. We don’t have a complete gauge of all league teams, but we pretty much can assume who should be elite. So, take an elite team at home in Week 1 that is not playing another elite team or within its own division, and move on from there. If that does not seem feasible based on available opponents or availability of elite teams, consider teams that at the very least are expected to be improved and/or have something specifically fresh about them (i.e. new coach, remade offensive or defensive approach). Above all else, take a home team.
A few caveats: It typically isn’t a bad idea to pick against a team with a first-time starting quarterback whether or not it’s a home game.
Also, don’t concern yourself with the Vegas spread. You just need a winner. Vegas odds are set based on how the powers that be want you to think you should bet. They’re not always conducive to Survivor picks.
In the spirit of Rule 1, don’t “save” teams. If you think a given team is going to go undefeated, get your first win from them (if they’re home). You can’t pick in Week 2, or any other week for that matter, without advancing through week one. So, like Jack Dawson told Rose on the Titanic – “Make it count.”